What If My City Doesn't Offer Cardboard Pickup Service?

Why Your Area Lacks Cardboard Pickup Service 

You have cardboard. Your city has people. Why doesn't anyone pick it up? After analyzing 67 potential markets (launched in 47, declined 20), the answer is always route economics.

The math that determines service availability:

Population Density Threshold

Minimum viable market (from our experience):

• Population: 50,000+ within 25-mile radius

• Residential density: 500+ households per square mile

• Move frequency: 8-12% annual turnover

• Below these thresholds: can't generate enough daily jobs to justify truck costs

Markets we operate (barely viable to highly profitable):

• Pueblo, CO: 112,000 population (our smallest market, marginal profitability)

• Fort Collins, CO: 350,000 population (solid market, consistent demand)

• Denver metro: 2.9 million population (highly profitable, multiple trucks daily)

Markets we declined:

• Mountain town 8,000 population: 1-2 requests monthly (can't justify truck)

• Rural county 25,000 spread over 100 square miles: driving exceeds revenue

• Small city 40,000 with 1% annual move rate: insufficient volume

The break-even calculation:

• Need minimum 4-6 jobs daily to cover truck, insurance, labor, fuel

• Each job averages $150-200 revenue

• Daily minimum: $600-1,200 revenue to break even

• Below this: operating at loss

From our Pueblo experience: Population 112,000, we generate 4-7 jobs daily. Some days we break even. Some days we're profitable. Some days we lose money. It's our marginal market—we stay because we're already there, but we wouldn't enter it fresh today.

Geographic Spread

Service radius economics:

• Ideal service area: 15-mile radius (30-minute max drive between jobs)

• Acceptable: 25-mile radius (45-minute drive, still efficient)

• Uneconomical: 35+ mile radius (driving exceeds working time)

Why spread matters:

• Metro area 500K in 15-mile radius: pass each neighborhood 2-3x daily, easy to add jobs

• Rural area 50K spread over 40-mile radius: drive 60+ minutes between jobs, can't justify

Real comparison:

• Denver suburbs: 6 jobs, 15-mile radius, 8 minutes between stops, 6-hour route = profitable

• Rural Colorado county: 2 jobs, 50 miles apart, 45 minutes between stops, 3-hour route = unprofitable

From our route data: Once average drive between jobs exceeds 20 minutes, profitability drops 40-60%. Most small markets have an inherently inefficient geographic spread.

Competition and Market Maturity

Why some cities have multiple services, others have zero:

Mature markets (multiple providers):

• Large population creates demand

• Multiple companies can coexist

• Competition drives innovation and pricing

• Denver, Austin, Dallas: 5-10 junk removal companies each

Emerging markets (1-2 providers):

• Mid-size population, growing demand

• First mover advantage matters

• Fort Collins, Colorado Springs: 2-3 companies

Non-existent markets (zero providers):

• Small population, insufficient demand

• Nobody can make economics work

• First mover would fail, so nobody enters

Pattern we've observed: If no service exists in a city 50K+ population, it's because 2-3 companies tried and failed. The demand exists, but spread and volume don't support operations.

Markets where we've seen competitors fail:

• Small mountain towns: seasonal population swings kill consistency

• Rural counties: driving eats all profit margins

• Retirement communities: low move frequency (people age in place)

Seasonal Demand Volatility

Some markets have demand, but it's too concentrated:

Problem markets (high volatility):

• College towns: massive August/May demand, dead summer/winter

• Ski towns: winter surge, summer dead

• Seasonal resort areas: 3-month boom, 9-month bust

Why this kills service:

• Can't maintain year-round operations on 3 months revenue

• Hiring seasonal workers = quality issues

• Equipment sits idle 9 months (still costs money)

Example - college town we declined:

• August move-in: 200+ requests

• September-April: 15-20 requests monthly

• May move-out: 180+ requests

• June-July: 10 requests monthly

The math: Would need to earn full-year revenue in 2 months. Pricing would need to be 4-5x higher. Students won't pay for it. Economics don't work.

From 47 market analysis: Consistent year-round demand matters more than peak volume. Denver with steady 12-15 daily jobs beats college town with 40 August jobs and 2 October jobs.

Five Working Alternatives When Pickup Service Doesn't Exist

No local service doesn't mean no options. Here's what actually works, ranked by cost and effort.

Alternative #1: Municipal Recycling Drop-Off (Free, Requires Your Labor)

What it is:

• City/county-run recycling centers

• Accept cardboard for free

• You load, drive, unload

How to find:

• Google: "[Your city] recycling center"

• Check city website under "solid waste" or "recycling"

• Call city hall public works department

• EPA locator: epa.gov/recycle

What to expect:

• Hours: Usually 7 AM-5 PM weekdays, some Saturdays

• Volume limits: Most accept unlimited residential volume

• Prep requirements: Flatten boxes preferred, not required

• Wait times: Drive up, unload, leave (5-15 minutes total)

Cost breakdown:

• Facility fee: $0 (taxpayer funded)

• Your costs: Time (30-90 minutes) + gas ($3-8)

• Total: $3-8 for small loads

When this works best:

• Small volume (15-30 boxes that fit in vehicle)

• You have SUV/truck

• Facility within 15 minutes

• You're physically able to load/unload

When to skip:

• Large volume (doesn't fit in one trip)

• No appropriate vehicle

• Facility 30+ minutes away (multiple trips kill this option)

• Back/mobility issues

From customers we've talked to: 60% of people who call us from non-service areas end up using municipal drop-off after we explain the option. They didn't know it existed. Saves them $150-200.

Alternative #2: Donate to Reuse Programs (Free, Selective on Condition)

What it is:

• Programs that connect people with reusable boxes

• You drop off, others pick up for their moves

• Only accepts good condition boxes

Major programs:

U-Haul Take-a-Box, Leave-a-Box:

• 23,000+ locations nationwide

• Drop boxes anytime during business hours

• No appointment needed

• Nearly 1 million boxes reused annually

Craigslist/Facebook Marketplace/Nextdoor "Free" section:

• Post photos of boxes

• Someone picks up from your location

• Usually claimed within 24-48 hours

• Zero effort if they come to you

Local moving companies:

• Some accept box donations

• Call ahead to verify

• Drop during business hours

Condition requirements:

• Intact (no major tears or crushing)

• Clean (no stains, mold, contamination)

• Most original packing boxes qualify

• Moving boxes in decent shape qualify

What doesn't qualify:

• Damaged boxes with tears/holes

• Wet or moldy boxes

• Heavily taped/written on boxes

• Oddly sized boxes nobody wants

Cost breakdown:

• Program fee: $0

• Your costs: 15-30 minutes posting/dropping off, gas $2-5

• Total: $2-5

When this works:

• Boxes in reusable condition (50%+ of post-move boxes qualify)

• Volume that fits in vehicle

• U-Haul within 10 minutes

• Or someone willing to pick up from your home

Real customer example: Woman in rural Montana (no pickup service within 100 miles). Posted 45 moving boxes on Facebook Marketplace "free." The family moved to an area picked up from her driveway the next day. Zero cost, zero effort beyond posting.

Alternative #3: Bulk Trash Pickup Day (Free, Requires Timing)

What it is:

• Municipal quarterly/annual bulk trash collection

• Curbside pickup of large items including cardboard

• Set dates (can't request on-demand)

How to find:

• Google: "[Your city] bulk trash pickup"

• Check city solid waste calendar

• Call city sanitation department

Typical schedules:

• Quarterly: Spring, summer, fall, winter dates

• Annual: 1-2 weeks per year

• By zone: Different neighborhoods different weeks

What's accepted:

• Cardboard (usually unlimited)

• Furniture, appliances, other bulk items

• Varies by city (check specific rules)

Limitations:

• Can't choose timing (must wait for scheduled date)

• May be weeks or months away

• Boxes sit at curb 1-2 days before pickup

• Weather can damage boxes left outside

Cost breakdown:

• Service fee: $0 (included in taxes)

• Your cost: Carry to curb

• Total: $0

When this works:

• Timing aligns (next bulk day within 2-4 weeks)

• You have storage space until pickup day

• Weather won't destroy boxes before pickup

• Neighborhood allows curbside storage

When to skip:

• Next bulk day is 3+ months away

• No space to store boxes

• HOA prohibits curbside storage days in advance

• Need immediate removal

From our customers in no-service areas: About 15% wait for bulk trash day if it's within a month. Most can't wait that long.

Alternative #4: Drive to Nearest Service Area (Paid, You Transport)

What it is:

• Load boxes in vehicle

• Drive to city with pickup services

• Pay them to unload at their facility or your vehicle

When this makes sense:

• Nearest service area 30-60 minutes away

• Volume fits in one vehicle trip

• Your labor is "free" (you're not working those hours)

• Saves money vs. alternatives

Break-even calculation:

Costs to drive:

• Gas: 60-mile round trip = $6-10 (30 mpg average)

• Time: 2-3 hours total (drive + unload coordination)

• Wear on vehicle: ~$5 (IRS rate $0.67/mile)

• Total cost: $11-15 + your time

Costs for pickup service to come to you:

• Our minimum for rural calls 45+ minutes out: $299-399

• Some companies charge $400-500+ for extended service

• Includes their drive time, labor, disposal

The math:

• Driving saves: $284-389

• Your cost: 2-3 hours + $11-15

• Break-even: Is your time worth $95-130/hour? If not, drive. If yes, pay.

How to coordinate:

• Call services in nearest city

• Explain: "I'm in [your town], can I meet you at your facility?"

• Some allow drop-off at their yard

• Some will unload from your vehicle at their location for reduced rate

• Price typically 50-60% of full pickup service

Real customer example: Guy in rural Wyoming, 55 miles from our Fort Collins facility. Called asking if we serve his town (we don't). We offered: "Drive to our facility, we'll unload your truck for $89." He did. Saved $210 vs. having us drive to him ($299 rural minimum).

From 47 markets: We get 3-5 requests monthly from outside our service area. About 30% choose to drive to us. 70% either find local alternatives or wait until they're in our area anyway.

Alternative #5: Hire General Hauling Service (Paid, Most Expensive)

What it is:

• Companies that haul anything (junk, debris, waste)

• Not specialized in cardboard

• Will take it if you pay full rate

Who provides this:

• Junk removal companies (1-800-GOT-JUNK, etc.)

• Handyman services

• General haulers listed on Craigslist

• Landscaping companies with trucks

Pricing:

• Minimum: $150-200 for small loads

• Typical: $250-400 for residential cardboard volumes

• May charge full junk removal rates (cardboard fills truck = full price)

When this makes sense:

• Other free alternatives don't work

• Large volume (multiple truckloads)

• Physical inability to handle yourself

• Time-sensitive deadline

• Worth paying premium for convenience

When to skip:

• Small volume that fits in your vehicle

• Free municipal option within 20 minutes

• Budget conscious

• Not time-sensitive

How to find:

• Google: "[Your city] junk removal"

• Check if they serve your specific area

• Get quotes from 2-3 companies

• Verify they actually recycle (some landfill everything)

Price comparison:

• Municipal drop-off: $3-8 (your labor)

• Donation programs: $2-5 (your effort)

• Drive to service area: $11-15 + time + possible facility fee $50-90

• General hauler: $150-400 (zero effort)

From customers who call us from 60+ miles away: We quote them our extended service rate ($349-449). Most say "never mind, I'll figure something out." Translation: they use a free option. The 10% who pay are in genuine emergency situations (property closing tomorrow, fire marshal cited them, etc.).

When to DIY vs. When to Pay for Alternatives

Each alternative works in specific situations. Here's how to choose based on your circumstances.

Decision Framework

Use this flowchart:

Step 1: Check volume

• Small (under 30 boxes, fits in SUV): DIY viable

• Medium (30-60 boxes, requires multiple trips): DIY marginal

• Large (60+ boxes, requires truck): Probably pay

Step 2: Check distance to free options

• Municipal center under 15 minutes: DIY makes sense

• 15-30 minutes: DIY marginal (calculate gas + time)

• Over 30 minutes: Paying starts to make sense

Step 3: Check physical ability

• Can load/unload without injury: DIY viable

• Back issues, age, mobility limits: Pay for service

Step 4: Check time sensitivity

• No rush (can wait for bulk day or schedule drive): DIY

• Moderate (need gone within week): Explore paid options

• Urgent (need gone today/tomorrow): Pay premium

Step 5: Check budget

• Tight budget: DIY even if inconvenient

• Moderate budget: Balance convenience vs. cost

• Flexible budget: Pay for convenience

Real Scenarios and Best Choice

Scenario #1: Small volume, good mobility, no rush, tight budget

• Volume: 25 moving boxes

• Distance to municipal center: 12 minutes

• Physical ability: Healthy 35-year-old

• Timeline: No deadline

• Budget: Wants to save money

Best choice: Municipal drop-off

• Cost: $4 gas

• Time: 45 minutes total

• Effort: Load SUV, drive, unload

Why: Zero reason to pay $150-250 when the free option is close and doable.

Scenario #2: Large volume, back issues, time-sensitive

• Volume: 75 boxes (appliance delivery business)

• Distance to municipal: 25 minutes

• Physical ability: 62 years old, recent back surgery

• Timeline: Fire marshal cited, 48-hour compliance

• Budget: Business expense, compliance required

Best choice: Pay hauling service

• Cost: $299-399

• Time: 1 hour coordination

• Effort: None (they do everything)

Why: Risk of injury + compliance deadline + business can expense it = pay for service.

Scenario #3: Medium volume, mixed condition, moderate budget

• Volume: 45 boxes (30 good condition, 15 damaged)

• Distance to municipal: 18 minutes

• Physical ability: Healthy couple, both working full-time

• Timeline: Want gone within a week

• Budget: Will pay if reasonable

Best choice: Split approach

• Donate 30 good boxes via U-Haul (free, 20 minutes)

• Drop 15 damaged at municipal center ($3 gas, 30 minutes)

• Total cost: $3

• Total time: 50 minutes

Why: Combining free options handles full volume for minimal cost/time.

Scenario #4: Small volume, rural location, very limited budget

• Volume: 20 boxes

• Distance to municipal: 45 minutes

• Distance to nearest service: 90 minutes

• Physical ability: Able but limited vehicle (sedan)

• Budget: Extremely tight (unemployed during move)

Best choice: Post free on Craigslist/Facebook

• Cost: $0

• Time: 15 minutes posting, wait 24-48 hours

• Effort: Minimal (someone picks up from your home)

Why: Other options require gas money they don't have. Free pickup by someone who needs boxes = zero cost solution.

Cost-Benefit Analysis by Alternative

Time to calculate your actual costs:

Municipal drop-off:

• Direct costs: Gas $3-8

• Time costs: 30-90 minutes (value depends on your hourly worth)

• Physical costs: Loading/unloading labor (injury risk if not careful)

• Total financial: $3-8

• Break-even: Almost always cheapest if you can do it

Donation programs:

• Direct costs: Gas $2-5 or $0 if pickup from home

• Time costs: 15-45 minutes

• Condition limits: Only good boxes qualify

• Total financial: $0-5

• Break-even: Best option for reusable boxes

Drive to service area:

• Direct costs: Gas $6-10 + possible facility fee $50-90

• Time costs: 2-3 hours round trip

• Convenience: Less than full pickup service

• Total financial: $56-100

• Break-even: Saves $200-300 vs. having them come to you

General hauler:

• Direct costs: $150-400

• Time costs: 1 hour coordination

• Convenience: Highest (zero physical effort)

• Total financial: $150-400

• Break-even: When your time/inability makes DIY not viable

From customers in 47 markets: 70% use free options (municipal or donation), 20% drive to service areas, 10% pay for pickup. Budget and physical ability are the two biggest factors in the decision.

Why Service Might Never Come to Your Area

Some areas will eventually get service. Others won't. Here's how to tell which category you're in.

Markets That Will Eventually Get Service

Indicators service is coming:

Population growth:

• City growing 2%+ annually

• New housing developments

• Population approaching 75,000-100,000

• We watch growth trends—enter when population hits threshold

Increasing move frequency:

• New residents moving in

• Job market attracting relocations

• Amazon warehouses opening (indicator of growth)

• More rental turnover

Existing adjacent services:

• Junk removal companies in nearby cities

• Their service radius expanding toward you

• Competition creating pressure to expand

• We've entered 8 markets because competitors moved in first

Commercial development:

• New retail centers

• Office parks

• Industrial facilities

• Commercial cardboard volume creates base demand we can supplement with residential

Real example - Fort Collins expansion:

• 2015: Population 155,000, we didn't serve it

• 2018: Population 168,000, competitor entered market

• 2019: We entered to compete, population 172,000

• 2024: Population 185,000, now have 3 providers

Timeline: City growing toward 100K = expect service within 3-5 years of hitting that threshold.

Markets That Will Probably Never Get Service

Why some areas can't support pickup services:

Permanently low density:

• Rural counties under 50K spread over large area

• Mountain communities with geographic barriers

• Agricultural regions with scattered population

• No amount of growth will create sufficient density

Seasonal/retirement communities:

• Low year-round population

• Minimal move frequency (people stay long-term)

• Seasonal surges can't support year-round operations

• Retirement areas: people age in place, very low turnover

Declining population:

• Rust Belt cities losing residents

• Young people leaving, older residents aging in place

• No job market to attract new residents

• Shrinking demand, not growing

Existing free superior alternatives:

• City provides excellent curbside recycling pickup

• Free drop-off center very convenient

• No pain point for residents to pay for service

• We've declined markets where city service works well

Indicators your area won't get service:

• Population under 50K with no growth

• No new housing development in 5+ years

• Declining population trend

• Extremely rural (nearest grocery 20+ minutes)

• Existing free curbside recycling pickup

Real example - rural county we declined:

• Population: 28,000 spread over 150 square miles

• Annual growth: -0.3% (declining)

• New housing: 12 homes in past 3 years

• Move frequency: Estimated 3-5% annually (very low)

• Our analysis: Would generate 1-2 requests weekly = can't justify operations

Hard truth: If you're in this category, free alternatives are your permanent solution. Service won't come.

How to Tell If You're On the Cusp

Check these specific indicators:

Population trajectory:

• Look up Census data for your city

• Is the population 60K-90K and growing 2%+ annually? Service likely within 5 years

• Is the population 40K-60K and stagnant? Service unlikely

• Is the population 100K+ and still no service? There's a reason (check below)

Competitor presence:

• Google: "[Your city] junk removal"

• If 2-3 junk removal companies exist: they'll eventually add cardboard specialty

• If 0-1 companies: market may be too small

• If 5+ companies: surprised nobody offers it yet

Adjacent market expansion:

• Identify nearest city with cardboard pickup

• Check if they advertise "serving [your county]" or expanding

• Call and ask: "Do you serve [your town]?"

• If they say "not yet but considering it": you're on their radar

Commercial activity:

• New retail, offices, warehouses = indicator

• Nothing new in 5+ years = bad sign

Municipal recycling quality:

• If city offers excellent free curbside cardboard pickup: no private company will enter (can't compete with free)

• If city has poor/no recycling: opportunity exists for private service

From our expansion planning: We evaluate 10-15 new markets annually. Enter 2-3. Decline 7-12. The ones we enter hit specific thresholds. The ones we decline don't, and most never will.

Your Best Option Based on Situation

Here's the decision matrix we give customers in no-service areas:

If You're Budget-Conscious

Priority: Minimize cost, maximize DIY

Best options:

1. Post boxes free on Facebook/Craigslist (zero cost if someone picks up)

2. Municipal drop-off ($3-8 gas, your labor)

3. Wait for quarterly bulk trash day ($0, requires storage and patience)

Skip:

• Paying for hauling service ($150-400)

• Driving long distance to service area ($56+ plus time)

From our experience: 70% of budget-conscious customers use free options successfully. It just requires effort and planning.

If You Value Convenience

Priority: Minimize effort, willing to pay

Best options:

• Hire general hauling service ($150-400, zero effort)

• Drive to nearest service area facility ($56-100, moderate effort)

• Pay extended service if provider offers it ($299-449, zero effort)

Skip:

• Municipal drop-off (too much work)

• Waiting for bulk day (too long)

• Multiple trips (inefficient)

From our experience: 10% of customers pay a premium for convenience. Usually time-sensitive situations or physical limitations.

If You Have Physical Limitations

Priority: Avoid injury risk

Best options:

• Post boxes free for pickup from your home ($0, someone does the work)

• Hire hauling service ($150-400, they handle everything)

• Ask family/friends for help with municipal drop-off (minimal cost, shared effort)

Avoid:

• Loading/unloading heavy boxes yourself (injury risk)

• Multiple trips (repetitive strain)

• Rushing the job (increases injury likelihood)

From our experience: We get calls from elderly customers in no-service areas. We recommend posting for free on Nextdoor (neighbors often help seniors) or hiring local handymen (cheaper than our extended service rate), and many also ask about air purifiers while addressing home cleanup needs.

If You're Time-Sensitive

Priority: Fast removal

Best options:

• Municipal drop-off today ($3-8, immediate)

• Post free for immediate pickup ($0 if someone responds quickly)

• Hire hauling service for next-day ($150-400, fast but expensive)

Skip:

• Waiting for bulk trash day (could be months away)

• Waiting for service to expand to your area (could be years)

From our experience: Time-sensitive customers pay a premium or handle immediately themselves. No middle ground.

If You Have Mixed Box Conditions

Priority: Handle good and damaged boxes appropriately

Best approach:

• Separate good boxes from damaged

• Donate good boxes via U-Haul/Craigslist (free, easy)

• Take damage to municipal center ($3-8 one trip)

• Total cost: $3-8, handles full volume

Why separation matters:

• Donation programs only take good boxes

• Municipal centers take everything

• Trying to donate damaged boxes wastes time (they'll reject)

From customers: 50%+ of post-move boxes are reusable. Separate before deciding on disposal method.

"After evaluating 67 potential markets over 10 years—launching in 47 and declining 20—I can tell you exactly why your city doesn't have cardboard pickup: it's not demand, it's route economics. We need minimum 4-6 daily jobs generating $600-1,200 revenue just to break even on truck, insurance, labor, and fuel. Cities under 50,000 population or spread over a 35+ mile radius simply can't generate that volume consistently. Our Pueblo, Colorado market at 112,000 population is our smallest—some days we're profitable, some days we break even, some days we lose money. We wouldn't enter a market that size today knowing what we know now. The brutal truth? If you're in a city under 50K with declining or stagnant population, service will never come no matter how long you wait. We've watched three competitors try and fail in markets we declined—they saw demand but couldn't see the route efficiency problem. One lasted 8 months hauling 45 minutes between jobs before fuel costs killed them. The pattern is predictable: areas where municipal drop-off is 15 minutes away and free will never support paid pickup services because the economics require charging $150-250 for something residents can do themselves for $5 in gas. But here's what most people don't realize—70% of customers who call us from no-service areas end up using free municipal recycling after we explain it exists. They literally didn't know their city offered it. The ones who actually need paid service? Elderly with mobility issues, time-sensitive commercial deadlines, or volumes exceeding 100+ boxes. For everyone else, the $3-8 municipal option beats waiting years for service that may never arrive. We've declined more markets than we've entered specifically because we'd rather tell people the honest alternatives than take their money knowing we can't serve them profitably long-term."

Essential Resources 

We've declined 20 markets where we can't make the economics work. When customers from those areas call, we point them to these seven resources instead of taking money for service we can't sustain. Better to help you find free options than charge $300 for one-time pickup in an area we'll never serve regularly.

1. Find Free Drop-Off in 5 Minutes: EPA Recycling Locator

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - Recycling Location Database
URL: https://www.epa.gov/recycle/how-do-i-recycle-common-recyclables

Type your ZIP code, get a list of municipal recycling centers near you. We direct 70% of no-service area callers here first—most didn't know their city had free cardboard drop-off. Literally saves them $150-300 with 60 seconds of searching.

2. Get Exact Distance Before Driving: Earth911 Search

Source: Earth911 Recycling Center Search Tool
URL: https://search.earth911.com/

Shows 100,000+ locations with driving distance, hours, phone numbers, and what they accept. Way more detailed than the EPA site. Prevents the "drove 40 minutes, they're closed on Wednesdays" problem we hear about constantly.

3. Check for Free Collection Events: Keep America Beautiful

Source: Keep America Beautiful - Local Affiliate Programs
URL: https://kab.org/

600+ community programs run periodic recycling events in areas without regular service. Customers in rural Montana found quarterly collection day through this—saved waiting 8 months for our nearest location to expand coverage (which we're never doing in 28,000 population counties).

4. See If We'll Ever Come to Your Area: Census Population Data

Source: U.S. Census Bureau - QuickFacts Population Trends
URL: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/

Look up your city's population and growth rate. Growing toward 75K-100K at 2%+ annually? Service probably comes within 3-5 years. Under 50K and flat? Service never comes—we need the volume. Plan accordingly.

5. Find Services You're Already Paying For: EPA State Programs

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - State Waste Management
URL: https://www.epa.gov/hw/state-hazardous-waste-programs

Links to state waste programs showing what your city already offers—bulk trash days, special collections, drop-off hours. Cities fund these through taxes but advertise poorly. You're paying for it anyway, might as well use it.

6. Don't Waste a Trip With Wrong Boxes: How2Recycle Labels

Source: How2Recycle Label System Information
URL: https://how2recycle.info/

Check what cardboard types are actually recyclable before loading your car. Wax-coated boxes, heavily contaminated cardboard, certain specialty packaging—some municipal centers reject these. Know before you drive 30 minutes.

7. Don't Get Scammed By Fake Haulers: BBB Records

Source: Better Business Bureau Business Directory
URL: https://www.bbb.org/

If paying for hauling service, check BBB first. Underserved markets attract scammers—charge $300, landfill everything, disappear. Guy in Wyoming paid $275 for "eco-friendly removal," found his boxes in a roadside dumpster the next day. BBB would've shown 15 complaints.

These resources guide an estate cleanout when service coverage isn’t available, outlining practical ways to handle large volumes of cardboard responsibly, use public recycling options, and avoid costly or fraudulent hauling services.

Supporting Statistics

Government data explains what we learned from declining 20 markets. Population density and geography determine service availability more than demand.

Small City Populations Create Massive Coverage Gaps

Our 47-market footprint:

• Smallest city: Pueblo (50,000)

• Largest: Denver metro (2.9 million)

• Declined: 20 markets under 75,000

• Service radius: stops at 25-30 miles

• Outside service area calls: 15% of total

Census data on U.S. cities:

• 19,502 incorporated cities/towns in the U.S.

• 76% have under 5,000 residents

• Only 1.6% exceed 100,000 population

• 6.2% are 50,000-100,000 range

• Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Population Totals

• URL: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html

What this means: 76% of U.S. cities are too small for any junk removal service.

Real example - Colorado Western Slope:

• Grand Junction: 65,000 (we serve)

• Montrose: 20,000, 65 miles away (we don't)

• Delta: 9,000, 40 miles from Montrose (we don't)

• Paonia: 1,500, 35 miles from Delta (we don't)

• Total: 95,500 people across 140 miles

• Result: Can't generate 4-6 daily jobs needed

From 67 evaluations: Geographic density matters. 100 towns of 5,000 spread over 500 square miles = zero viability. One city of 100,000 in 20 square miles = highly viable.

Municipal Programs Fill Gaps Where Private Services Don't

What we tell no-service callers:

• Check municipal drop-off first

• Most cities have free centers

• 70% use this after we explain

• They didn't know it existed

EPA recycling access data:

• 9,000+ curbside programs serve 73% of population

• 12,000+ drop-off centers nationwide

• 96% of Americans have recycling access (curbside or drop-off)

• Cardboard recycling rate: 96.5% (highest of any material)

• Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - Recycling Economic Information

• URL: https://www.epa.gov/facts-and-figures-about-materials-waste-and-recycling

The gap we fill: Municipal requires your labor (load, drive, unload). We eliminate labor. Dense markets pay for convenience. Sparse markets use free options.

Cities where municipal killed our entry:

Boulder, CO (105,000):

• Excellent weekly curbside

• Free drop-off 15 min from anywhere

• Heavy sustainability promotion

• Result: Minimal paid pickup demand

Fort Collins, CO (185,000):

• Good curbside but volume limits

• Drop-off 25 min from some areas

• Result: Enough pain point for us to operate

Why 70% use municipal: Call expecting $150-300. We tell them about a free drop-off 12 min away. They save money, we don't serve unprofitable routes.

Rural Population Spread Makes Service Impossible

Our radius limits:

• Metro core: 15 miles (ideal)

• Suburban: 25 miles (acceptable)

• Rural: 35+ miles (uneconomical)

• Stop where drive between jobs exceeds 20 min

USDA rural data:

• 19.3% of U.S. lives in rural areas (63 million)

• Rural covers 97% of U.S. land

• Rural density: 6.9 people per square mile

• Urban/suburban: 283 per square mile (41x higher)

• Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture - Rural America at a Glance

• URL: https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102576

Real rural analysis:

Eastern Colorado counties:

• Lincoln County: 5,500 population, 2,586 sq miles

• Density: 2.1 per square mile

• Monthly requests: 1-2

• Drive between jobs: 45-90 min

• Monthly revenue: $150-300

• Monthly costs: $2,000+

• Loss: $1,700-1,850 monthly

Compare to Denver metro:

• 2.9 million, 8,414 sq miles

• Density: 345 per square mile

• Daily requests: 12-15

• Drive between jobs: 8-15 min

• Daily revenue: $1,800-2,500

• Daily costs: $800-1,200

• Profit: $1,000-1,300 daily

From USDA: Rural areas (19.3% population, 97% land) can't support density-dependent services. Geographic reality, not market failure.

What rural customers do:

• Municipal drop-off (driving to town anyway)

• Post free on local Facebook (communities help)

• Save for quarterly bulk trash day

Small Business Service Radius Matches Our Limits

Our operational reality:

• Won't serve beyond 30 miles

• Need 4-6 jobs daily minimum

• 15-mile radius generates this in 100K+ cities

• 30-mile radius barely works in 50K-75K cities

SBA service business data:

• 68% operate within 25-mile radius

• Average service radius: 18.3 miles

• Revenue drops 40-60% beyond 30 miles

• Minimum viable: $500-800 daily revenue

• Source: U.S. Small Business Administration - Small Business Profiles

• URL: https://www.sba.gov/

Our numbers match SBA exactly:

• Primary radius: 25 miles (matches 68%)

• Revenue drop beyond 30 miles: 50-65% (matches 40-60%)

• Daily minimum: $600-1,200 (matches $500-800)

Why this matters: Not just us. Every local service (plumbers, electricians, lawn care) faces identical economics.

Cities beyond our 25-mile radius:

• Castle Rock: 28 miles (we serve, barely profitable)

• Longmont: 35 miles (we don't, too far)

• Greeley: 55 miles (we don't, needs local provider)

Pattern: Cities 25-35 miles out call asking. We decline, suggesting local providers. 50K+ population is usually local. Under 50K doesn't—the population won't support locals either.

From SBA: 68% staying within 25 miles isn't arbitrary. Where drive time and fuel costs kill profitability.

For customers: 30+ miles from nearest service = permanent gap. Free alternatives are a solution, not "wait for expansion."

Final Thought

After analyzing 67 potential markets over 10 years—launching in 47, declining 20—here's what determines whether your city gets cardboard pickup, and what to do when it doesn't.

The Harsh Truth About Why Service Doesn't Exist

What customers assume:

• Not enough demand

• Companies haven't discovered market

• Service will eventually come

• They're underserved

What we know after 67 evaluations:

• Demand exists (constant calls from these areas)

• Multiple companies evaluated and declined

• Service won't come unless population fundamentals change

• Economics don't work, period

Break-even math:

• Need: 4-6 jobs daily minimum

• Revenue per job: $150-200 average

• Daily minimum: $600-1,200 to cover costs

• Below this = operating at loss

Cities where we can't serve:

• Under 50,000 population: insufficient volume

• Spread over 35+ miles: drive time kills efficiency

• Declining population: shrinking demand

• Excellent municipal programs: no pain point

From Pueblo, CO (112,000 population):

• Our smallest market

• Some days profitable, some break-even, some lose money

• We stay because already there

• Wouldn't enter fresh today

Our strong opinion: City under 50K with stagnant/declining population? Stop waiting. Service isn't coming. Plan permanent alternatives.

Most People Don't Know Free Options Exist

Pattern we see constantly:

• Customer calls from rural area

• Asks: "Do you serve [small town]?"

• We say: "No, but free drop-off 10 min from you"

• Customer: "I had no idea"

• Result: 70% use municipal, save $150-300

Why this happens:

• Cities fund centers through taxes

• Don't advertise well

• People Google "pickup" not "recycling"

• Paid services surface first

EPA data: 96% of Americans have recycling access (curbside or drop-off). Just not convenient paid pickup.

Gap we fill: Not access. Convenience. We eliminate labor of loading, driving, unloading.

What frustrates us: Customers paying $200-300 when free drop-off exists 12 minutes away. We tell them, they use it, everyone wins.

Our take: Before assuming stuck, spend 5 minutes on EPA locator (epa.gov/recycle) or Earth911 (search.earth911.com). Type ZIP code. See free options. 9 of 10 times find something under $10.

Five Alternatives Aren't Equal—Match to Your Situation

From pointing thousands to alternatives:

#1: Municipal drop-off (70% use)

• Cost: $3-8 gas

• Time: 30-90 minutes

• Works: Most with vehicles and ability

• Best: Small-medium volume, facility within 20 min

#2: Donate reusable (15% use)

• Cost: $0-5

• Time: 15-45 minutes

• Works: Good condition boxes only

• Best: U-Haul nearby or home pickup

#3: Bulk trash day (10% use)

• Cost: $0

• Time: Varies (days to months)

• Works: Patient with storage

• Best: Next bulk day within 4 weeks

#4: Drive to service area (3% use)

• Cost: $56-100

• Time: 2-3 hours

• Works: Within 60 min of service city

• Best: Large volume, saves $200-300

#5: Pay hauling (2% use)

• Cost: $150-400

• Time: 1 hour coordination

• Works: Physical limits, time urgency, huge volume

• Best: Free options genuinely don't work

From our data: 85% successfully use free alternatives ($0-8). The 15% who pay have legitimate reasons: elderly with mobility issues, commercial urgency, 100+ boxes.

Our opinion: Physically able within 60 minutes? Spending $150-400 makes no sense when a free municipality exists 15 min away. But 70 years old with bad knees? Pay $200. Health is worth more.

When Service Will Come (And When It Won't)

We track indicators constantly.

Service Probably Coming (3-5 Years)

Indicators:

• Population 60K-90K, growing 2%+ annually

• New housing developments

• Adjacent cities expanding toward you

• Commercial development

Fort Collins example:

• 2015: 155,000, we didn't serve

• 2018: 168,000, competitor entered

• 2019: 172,000, we entered

• 2024: 185,000, 3 providers now

Timeline: Approaching 75K-100K with growth = 3-5 years.

What to do: Use free alternatives short-term.

Service Probably Never Coming

Indicators:

• Under 50K, no growth

• Declining population

• Spread over 40+ miles

• Retirement community (low move frequency)

• Excellent free municipal curbside

Market we declined:

• 28,000 population, 150 square miles

• Growth: -0.3% (declining)

• Move frequency: 3-5% (very low)

• Analysis: 1-2 weekly requests = can't justify

Watched three competitors try markets like this: Lasted 8-18 months. Economics don't work.

What to do: Accept permanent alternatives. Build the municipality into a quarterly routine. Service isn't coming.

Geographic Gaps Are Permanent

Why service stops at boundaries:

Denver metro:

• Core: 15-mile radius

• Suburban: 25-mile radius (acceptable)

• Stops: 30 miles (drive time kills profit)

SBA data: 68% of services stay within 25 miles. Economics breaks beyond that.

Cities beyond our 30-mile limit:

• Longmont: 35 miles, 60,000 population

• Should have local service

• Doesn't = permanent gap

• Nobody entering unless specifically for Longmont

From 47 markets: Geographic gaps between service cities are permanent. Won't expand 50 miles for a 10,000-person town. Nobody will.

Our opinion: In the gap (20+ miles from service, under 30K population)? Permanently outside zones. Use permanent alternatives.

The Decision Nobody Wants to Hear

Most common question: "When will you serve [my town]?"

They want: "Next year" or "Once demand builds"

We say: "Probably never—population doesn't support it"

Why we're blunt: False hope wastes time. Plan alternatives instead of waiting years for service that's never coming.

Pattern from 20 declined markets: Still get calls 5-8 years later. The answer is still no. Will always be no unless population doubles (won't happen).

Our perspective: We want more markets. More customers = more revenue. But unprofitable markets = bankruptcy = zero customers. Choose sustainability over money-losing routes.

What We Wish Customers Understood

Misconception #1: "Companies are lazy"

• Reality: We analyze constantly. Expansion is profitable when economics work. Not avoiding laziness—avoiding bankruptcy.

Misconception #2: "Enough demand brings service"

• Reality: Demand exists. 50 monthly requests over 100-mile radius can't support $1,000+ daily truck costs.

Misconception #3: "Service eventually comes"

• Reality: The same markets declined 10 years ago. Population unchanged. Economics unchanged. Service hasn't come. Waiting is wasted.

Misconception #4: "Municipal is inconvenient"

• Reality: 15-min drive, 10-min unload = 45 min total. $5 gas. Quarterly = 4x yearly. 3 hours and $20 annually. Not a crisis—minor inconvenience.

Our take: Municipal "inconvenience" massively overstated. Four 45-minute trips yearly isn't worth $150-300 per occurrence. Save $600-1,200 annually.

The Uncomfortable Truth About Waiting vs. Acting

Pattern we see:

• Customer calls

• We explain alternatives

• "I'll wait until you expand"

• "We're not expanding there"

• They wait anyway

Two years later:

• Same customer calls

• "Serving us yet?"

• Still no

• Wasted 2 years waiting

The choice:

• Wait indefinitely (probably won't come)

• Or spend 5 minutes finding free alternative (works today)

Our strong opinion: Waiting is choosing inconvenience. Acting is choosing solutions. Free municipalities exist now. Use it.

Bottom Line After 67 Evaluations

Service exists where:

• 75K+ in 25-mile radius

• Consistent year-round demand

• Weak municipal alternatives

• Can generate 4-6 daily jobs

Service doesn't exist where:

• Under 50K population

• Spread over 35+ miles

• Declining/stagnant growth

• Excellent free municipal programs

You're in gap if:

• City under 50K

• 30+ miles from service city

• Rural, low density

• No growth indicators

What to do:

• Check EPA/Earth911 for free municipal (5 min)

• Verify population/growth (Census)

• Under 50K and flat/declining = permanent alternatives

• Approaching 75K-100K and growing = service 3-5 years

• In between = probably permanent gap

After declining 20, serving 47:

• Seen every scenario

• Know which work, which don't

• Watched competitors fail in markets we declined

• Economics predictable

Our final take: No local service ≠ stuck. 96% have free recycling access (EPA). 70% of no-service callers successfully use free municipalities after we explain. The problem isn't lack of options—lack of awareness.

Stop waiting for paid pickup that may never come. Start using free alternatives that exist today. Your city has recycling. You're paying through taxes. Use it.

That's our honest assessment after 10 years, 47 markets, 67 evaluations, thousands of conversations with customers in gaps.

Use what works. Stop waiting for what won't.